Yesterday’s class was another smaller class, but it appears that the enrollments for the next few classes will be bigger (I’ve got a new registration script on my sign-up page, so it’s easier to track that now). I am also seeing a general reversal of the renewal percentages that I have been getting for the past three years.
Back about 6 years ago, the Texas legislature made a change in the renewal term from 4 to 5 years. At that time, I was teaching separate renewal classes, because I had about as many renewal students as initial applicants. But about 4 years after the renewal term change, I experienced a drop in the number of renewals — along with a gradual increase in the number of initial applicants. Since it wasn’t really worthwhile to teach a separate class for only two or three renewal students, I started just teaching initial-applicant classes, and letting the renewals attend a part of the class. I didn’t really like that as much, but since I was getting anywhere from 14 to 18 initial applicants, and 2 or 3 renewals in a typical class, it worked out well enough.
Then the Legislature made another change a few years ago. Now, after your 2nd renewal, you only have to attend the renewal class once every 10 years, or every other time you renew. By then, a typical class was 15 to 20 initial applicants, and maybe one or two renewals. Many classes had no renewal students at all.
But that has changed as of about 6 months ago. I am now getting enough renewal students to make it worthwhile to offer renewal-only courses again. Plus, I’m still getting renewal students in my initial-applicant classes (generally, they choose that class due to their schedule constraints, because they end up spending about an hour longer in the initial-applicant class because I pace the course for the new folks). Yesterday’s class (10 total) had 4 renewal students. It was going to be 7 renewals, but 3 of them re-scheduled to a later class.
I suspect the overall increase in the renewal students is only partly due to the end of the first five-year renewal period. I think that the current political situation has caused current CHL holders to place a higher value on the concealed-carry license, and the lapse rate is going down. On top of that, the interest in CHL has been steadily increasing long enough now that there are many more current CHL holders needing to renew. Most of my renewal students in the last 6 months have been first-time renewals, whereas before that, more than half of my renewal students were on their 2nd or 3rd renewal.
Over the past several years, I’ve seen several of the instructors that I know quit because they weren’t making enough money at it. Some of them quit just before the demand for CHL started to go up rapidly, and are now regretting that, because it’s quite a hassle to get back into the program once you have allowed your credentials to expire. Basically, they have to start over.
And now, the DPS new instructor classes are getting huge again, after several years of shrinking enrollments. Unfortunately for all those new instructors, there are some more changes coming that are going to make it much more difficult to make much money teaching CHL classes. I don’t really know what those changes are going to be (I’ve only heard rumors), but I can already see what I think are significant trends. For starters, the law was changed to allow more use of online instruction — and the DPS has already applied that to the instructor courses. Next time I renew my instructor certificate, I won’t have to go to Austin to do it. I will take an online course and exam, and then find another instructor to give me the range test. The only differences between the tests for an instructor and for a regular CHL applicant are 1) the instructor has to score 90% on all tests, and 2) the instructor must pass a range test with both revolver and semiautomatic.
I’m guessing that within the next two years, CHL renewals will be able to take the renewal course online, and my only role will be to administer the range qualification test. It’s possible that in another couple of years after that, the initial applicants will also be getting the classroom training online, which means that I will basically be out of the classroom training for CHL. I want to emphasize that this is only a guess. I don’t know for sure that any of this is really going to happen.
I have added NRA instructor credentials to my resume. In addition to my perception that I need to branch out in my business, I have mixed feelings about allowing someone who only barely passes the ridiculously easy range test to carry a gun. The CHL course prepares you for a gunfight about as well as buying a piano makes you a musician. The NRA courses do a much better job of preparing you to become (with practice) a skilled marksman. Judging from my general success in being able to coach inexperienced students through the CHL range test, I am confident that anyone who successfully completes my NRA Basic Pistol class will pass the CHL range test with a high score on the first try. With the trends I’m seeing in the way the CHL courses may be presented in the relatively near future, I may see an almost complete shift in my business to the NRA courses.
